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First Rate

A newsletter specifically designed to keep you updated on interest rate trends

john santos ocampo, mortgage broker 
John Santos-Ocampo AMP
Mortgage Broker
 
Direct Line: (604) 506-0397
Fax: (604) 648-9541
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November 2005

Dear homeowner or investor,

As a homeowner (or prospective homeowner), investor or real estate professional, you rely on your mortgage professional to keep you informed about interest rate movements and trends.  This newsletter is designed to do just that.

In this issue:

  • Market commentary and Interest rate trends
  • State of the Canadian mortgage market 
  • In the news

Please check out my NEW affiliate website: BCHomeBuyer.ca .

Market commentary & Interest rate trends

The Bank of Canada (BOC) moved up the key interest rate on Oct 18, 2005 by 0.25 percent to 3.00%.  Consequently,  the major banks increased their prime rate to 4.75%.  The increase may be the last for this year.  The higher interest rate is helping push the Canadian dollar higher.  This is hurting the manufacturing sector in Ontario.

As expected, fixed rates have increased.  The 5-year fixed rate is now at 4.74%.  There is more pressure to increase.  Prospective home buyers should take advantage of their pre-approvals before the expiry dates. 

Variable rate mortgage are again a good choice.  The rate increases may be over.  Secondly, the gap between the variable rate and the 5 year fixed rate has widened.  

Rates and Charts

Prime @ 4.50%

Term

Sep 16

Sep 23

Sep 30

Oct 7

Oct 14

Oct 21

Oct 28

3 year

4.25%

4.25%

4.25%

4.25%

4.25%

4.25%

4.55%

5 year

4.50%

4.50%

4.50%

4.50%

4.50%

4.50%

4.74%

10 year

4.92%

5.05%

5.05%

5.05%

5.05%

5.10%

5.19%

Table shows the discounted residential mortgage rates for 3, 5 and 10 yr closed fixed rate mortgages

For a longer term view, click here to see the 3, 5 & 10 year best residential rate since September 2003 (updated monthly)

Click to view other relevant graphs
 

Everything you wanted to know about the State of the Residential Mortgage Market in Canada. 

Will Dunning Inc conducted economic research for the Candian Iinstitute of Mortgage Brokers amd Lenders (CIMBL) on the state of the Canadian mortgage market.  It's a must read for mortgage professionals.  Here is a summary of the report:

1) $617 Billion in mortgage balances outstanding in Canada.
2) 6.4% growth year over year for the past 5 years and 9.4% growth the past 2 years in mortgages outstanding.  Far outstretching the growth in the Canadian economy which is about 4.7% during the same time period.
3) In 2004 mortgage credit expanded $55 Billion. In 2003 $43 Billion.
4) 61% of all mortgages are administered by the Banks.
5) 90% of Canadians are satisfied with their mortgage.
6) 37% of all mortgages outstanding have been negotiated in the past 12 months.
7) Amongst those that refinanced or renewed their mortgage 87% stayed with the same lender.
8) Those that renewed their mortgage in the past 12 months, 40% increased the mortgage balance. The average increase on renewal was $25,100.00.
9) 31% have a 5 year term. 14% have terms greater than 5 years.
10) The average discount off posted is now 1.33%.
11) 21% are due for renewal within 12 months.
12) 69% have fixed rate mortgages vs 31% in variable.
13) Prediction that with bond rates rising customers will opt for fixed rate mortgages in 2006.
14) 25% of those surveyed consulted a mortgage broker.  74% went to their bank.  Some, of course, went to both.
15) CMHC predicts the mortgage market will expand by 7 to 10%.
16) The author of this study predict 10% - 11% growth this year in mortgage credit.  Reaching $660 Billion.
17) Residential mortgages account for 1/3 of all household and business credit in Canada.
18) Average increase in house prices is 7.4% yearly from 1999 to 2004

Click here to read the full report.

 

In the News (excerpts from recent press releases)

1) Strong housing market to continue? (Van Sun, Oct 28, 2005) - Upward swing in the housing market to go through 2006 and 2007, BC economist predicts.  Click here to read more.

2) Fix or float: a personal choice (Financial Post, Oct 7, 2005) - CIBC's monthly economic newsletter.   Just a few years ago, it was clear that going with a variable rate mortgage would save you money. But heavy discounts on fixed rate mortgages and the narrowing spread between short and long-term interest rates have made the choice less obvoius.   Click here to read more.

3) CIBC World Market's Monthly Indicators (CIBC World Markets, Oct 6, 2005) - CIBC's monthly economic newsletter.   CIBC is predicting the prime rate to remain the same in Dec 2005 and remain there until the end of 2006. Click here to read more.

Links and Resources:
1) Royal Bank - Financial Market Weekly
2) TD Economics - Economic news & forecasts
3) Bank of Canada - Key policy rate

 

Please consider the information provided in this newsletter as general information.  Before you do anything consult a professional.

 

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